- This year, Joseph Kabila’s political comeback gained traction amid mounting tensions with the President Félix Tshisekedi administration, which accused him of plotting insurrection and revoked his immunity from prosecution.
- His recent reemergence, particularly in M23-held Goma, has sparked a flurry of debate: is this the calculated return of a power-hungry strongman, or the quiet evolution of a statesman ready to contribute to peace and reform?
When Joseph Kabila handed over power in 2019 after 18 turbulent years at the helm of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), it was seen as a rare peaceful transition in a nation often synonymous with war, death, disease and hopelessness under the shadow of vast mineral wealth.
Since then, the former president has kept a notably low profile—until a couple of months now. His recent reemergence, particularly in M23-held flashpoint of Goma, has sparked a flurry of debate: is this the calculated return of a power-hungry strongman, or the quiet evolution of a statesman ready to help build peace and reform?
Kabila’s return is occurring at a time when the DRC remains beset by insecurity, political fragmentation, and economic dysfunction. His sudden visibility has raised eyebrows and triggered alarm within the administration of President Félix Tshisekedi. Yet for some observers, especially those fatigued by the current government’s inability to stabilize the east, his reentry may not necessarily spell doom. It could offer the nation a second chance at inclusive dialogue, transitional reconciliation, and peacebuilding—if, and only if, Kabila has truly evolved.
Silence or Strategy?
Since ceding power, Kabila has spoken rarely and moved carefully—spending years out of the public eye. Some saw this as a dignified withdrawal from political life, an uncommon trait among African ex-presidents. Others interpreted his silence as strategic, a calculated retreat to bide time while building alliances behind the scenes.
His recent video address, made after Tshisekedi’s administration stripped him of presidential immunity, offered his most candid remarks in years. He decried corruption, misgovernance, and the worsening security crisis in the east. Coming from a man whose own regime was often accused of the same, the speech was met with both scorn and curiosity.
Critics, including top officials in the ruling UDPS party, were quick to label him a “pyromaniac posing as a fireman.” Yet the timing and tone of his comments raise a larger question: is this a Kabila rebranded? Could his years in retreat have brought reflection and maturity—perhaps even a new vision for national healing?
A Role in Transition?
Mineral-rich Congo is, once again, on the brink. Eastern provinces are plagued by resurgent violence from the M23 rebels, while accusations and counteraccusations between Kinshasa and Kigali cloud regional diplomacy. Religious leaders, international observers, and civil society organizations have long called for a national dialogue to foster reconciliation.
In this context, some voices argue that Kabila—despite his past—should not be excluded. Conflict resolution expert Elodie Ntamuzinda has urged Congolese authorities to engage him. “We believe the general interest comes first, and we need each other,” she stated in an interview with DW, highlighting the perils of marginalizing powerful political actors.
Could Kabila, then, find a constructive role in a transitional or advisory body? In a country where political legitimacy is often contested and democratic institutions remain fragile, inclusion may prove more stabilizing than exclusion. For such a role to be accepted by the public and international partners, however, Kabila would need to signal a genuine break from past excesses—perhaps by supporting institutional reforms or lending weight to peace implementation mechanisms under the African Union or SADC.
Drawing on Experience—and Networks
What Kabila lacks in popularity, he arguably makes up for in institutional memory and international connections. He is deeply familiar with the DRC’s military and bureaucratic architecture. His ties to regional players, particularly Angola and Zimbabwe, were instrumental in preserving his regime during past conflicts.
If leveraged responsibly, these networks could aid rather than hinder the peace process. Kabila’s voice may hold sway in quiet diplomacy where Tshisekedi’s has failed. For instance, in regional security talks or efforts to reintegrate rebel factions, his past as both rebel and president may grant him unique credibility.
That said, trust remains a major obstacle. Kabila’s tenure was marred by allegations of grand corruption, repression of dissent, and delayed elections. To be accepted as a credible broker today, he must demonstrate not just political will but moral clarity—perhaps through a truth-telling process or by supporting transitional justice mechanisms.
Youth Disillusionment—and Opportunity?
President Tshisekedi rode to power on a wave of optimism, promising reform and economic renewal. But years later, much of that hope has withered. Youth unemployment remains staggeringly high, basic services are spotty, and conflict continues to displace millions.
While there is little evidence of widespread nostalgia for Kabila, Tshisekedi’s own popularity appears to be waning. This vacuum presents a peculiar opportunity: if Kabila can convincingly recast himself not as a rival, but as a contributor to national unity, he may find a new constituency in an electorate desperate for solutions.
Still, such a reinvention would require extraordinary humility—and a break from his past image as an aloof, autocratic figure. He would need to engage Congolese youth, civil society, and international partners not with vague rhetoric but with tangible commitments to reform, inclusion, and peace.
Reforming the Former Autocrat?
The broader question at hand is whether former autocrats such as Kabila can be rehabilitated as agents of reform. Africa’s recent history offers mixed lessons. Some leaders, after leaving power, have become respected mediators or advisors such as Nigeria’s Olusegun Obasanjo. Others have returned to stir unrest and stoke division.
The determining factor often lies in intention and transparency. Has the former leader made peace with the fact that their time at the helm has passed? Are they willing to support rather than sabotage current efforts at reform?
Kabila’s recent remarks criticizing dictatorship and demanding good governance suggest an awareness of what is expected. But words alone are insufficient. The coming months will test whether he can act differently than before—and whether his involvement brings calm or chaos.
A Fork in the Road
Joseph Kabila’s return to the national conversation comes at a precarious moment for the DRC. His critics remain loud, and suspicions of ulterior motives are not without merit. Yet in a country desperate for unity and healing, the complete exclusion of former powerbrokers risks further entrenching division.
If Kabila is sincere in his call for democracy and good governance, now is the time to show it—not by returning to power, but by supporting processes larger than himself. The DRC does not need a savior—it needs institutions, dialogue, and credible reform.
A second chance at nation-building may be less about redemption and more about responsibility. Whether Kabila is up to that challenge remains to be seen. But in a region long haunted by unresolved conflict and cyclical leadership crises, even the cautious inclusion of former leaders—when anchored in accountability—might open a new chapter of stability.
Joseph Kabila – Key timelines
2001 – Joseph Kabila became President of the Democratic Republic of Congo at age 29 following the assassination of his father, Laurent-Désiré Kabila, amid the Second Congo War.
2006 – He won the DRC’s first democratic election under the 2002 Sun City Agreement, officially legitimizing his presidency through the ballot.
2011 – Kabila was re-elected in a highly contested vote, facing growing opposition and unrest, alongside the resurgence of rebel groups like M23.
2019 – After delaying elections beyond his constitutional term limit, Kabila peacefully handed over power to Félix Tshisekedi, though the legitimacy of the electoral outcome was widely questioned.
2025 – His political comeback gained traction amid mounting tensions with the Tshisekedi administration, which accused him of plotting insurrection and revoked his immunity from prosecution.
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