- Globally, Norway, Finland, and Iceland were ranked the top three countries with close to zero fragility.
- A fragile state according to the research body is a country that possesses characteristics that substantially impair its economic and social performance.
- The Fragile States Index is designed to measure countries’ vulnerability and assess how it might affect projects in the field.
Kenya has moved a step away from the risk of state collapse according to the latest Fragile States Index by the international research and educational institution Fund For Peace (FFP). The index, which is designed to measure countries’ vulnerability and assess how it might affect projects in the field, ranks Kenya position 36 out of 179 countries globally.
This is with an indicator score of 86.7 out of the maximum 120. Compared to the previous year, the rank is a one-step improvement from position 35 which earned a score of 87.8. Ideally, according to the index, a much higher score towards 120 which correlates higher ranking, implies that a given state is in a more fragile state and nears a probable state collapse, while a lower score and a lower ranking depict a fairly stable state.
The index is determined by a pool of conflict risk indicators used to measure the condition of a state at any given moment. They include security apparatus, economic growth, economic equality, state legitimacy, public services, human rights, demographic measures and external interventions.
Fragile States Index
Among other key parameters, Kenya exhibited improvements in economic growth, public services, human rights and external interventions in the current year so far, compared to last year.
On the other hand, there was a deterioration in the security apparatus and state legitimacy while segments of economic equality and demographic measures remained constant.
Compared to its East African Community counterparts, Kenya is the third best stable state after Tanzania and Rwanda. Tanzania ranks position 62 with a score of 76.1 while Rwanda ranks position 46 with a score of 81.8.
Somalia, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are ranked the most fragile in the region, standing at positions 1, 3 and 5 respectively. Out of the 120 maximum score, they had 111.3, 109.3 and 106.7, respectively.
This coming at a time that the country’s economy is projected to grow at 5.4 per cent in 2024, a slowdown compared to the 5.6 per cent recorded last year. The country has been experiencing strong activities in the services sector, sustained performance in agriculture, and improved exports.
Impact from risks including geopolitical tensions, mainly the Russia-Ukraine war, Israel-Palestine conflict and the Red Sea attacks on vessels by the Houthi Rebels are among the biggest concerns, with experts warning they will impact global economies.
“The main risks to the global growth outlook relate to further escalation of geopolitical tensions, interest rates remaining higher-for-even-longer in advanced economies, and policy uncertainty attributed to changes of government in some major economies,” Central Bank Governor, Dr Kamau Thugge said during post-Monetary Policy Committee review on Thursday this week.
The latest CEOs Survey and Market Perceptions Survey which were conducted ahead of this week’s MPC meeting, however, revealed sustained optimism about business activity and economic growth prospects for the next 12 months.
According to CBK, the optimism was primarily attributed to the stable macroeconomic environment reflected in the low inflation rate and stability in the exchange rate, and the continued strong performance of agriculture.
“Nevertheless, respondents expressed concerns about the impact of the recent protests on economic activities, high cost of doing business, and potential impact of increased geopolitical tensions on the economy,” Thugge said.
Read Also: Counting the Cost: Kenya’s July output nosedives in wake of protests
Countries with zero fragility
The Fragile States Index further shows that Globally, Norway, Finland and Iceland were ranked the top three countries with close to zero fragility, scoring 12.7, 14.3 and 15.2, respectively.
A fragile state according to the research body is a country that possesses characteristics that substantially impair its economic and social performance. These include weak governance, limited administrative capacity, chronic humanitarian crises, persistent social tensions, and often, violence or the legacy of armed conflict and civil war.
